Saturday, September 8, 2007

Mixed metaphors and messages...

An article in the NYT describes the growing concern over economic conditions, and all of the candidates' immediate desire to assign blame on you-know-who and to proclaim how they'd do better. It's obviously an irresistible way, I suppose, to score points. Much as I think the Bush administration has acted childishly and incompetently in almost every area, however, I find it awfully hard to give them any responsibility for the property market, or the irresponsible lending practices that pumped the bubble for so long. That's happened before and it will happen again. (They can be attacked much more reasonably on their policies that have led to exploding inequality.)

But I'm still not convinced that anyone can really predict and manage an economy on the basis of anything more scientific than the reading of tea leaves. As far as I can tell, economics, especially the "macroeconomics" of entire economies, is still very far from being a real science. (I wonder if any readers out there -- perhaps, some economist -- can point me to any data showing that economists can predict the movements of economies with anything like the accuracy one routinely finds in the rest of science? I'd be very interested to see such evidence.) This post from the Leiter Reports, although three years old, gives an interesting (legal philosopher's) perspective on economics as a science, and it's one I find myself largely agreeing with. Economics has been so committed to rational behavior, to proving mathematical theorems (which makes it look scientific), and even worse, perhaps, to the notion that all systems can be understood by supposing they are in some equilibrium, that it's tied one or both arms behind its back in its efforts really to understand economic phenomena.

Remarkably, these theoretical addictions still persist. An economist told me that it's still very hard to publish in some of the "best" economics journals if one does not assume that economic agents are fully rational. This is a problem in the sociology of the economics discipline. But it's changing, of course, as it would have to if economics is going to grow into something more intellectually sound. One promising development, for example, is a great body of work in computational economics, in which researchers aim to make plausible assumptions about human behavior -- based hopefully on empirical evidence -- and then use computational models to explore outcomes in large systems of interacting agents.

For now, we're still largely stuck with metaphors, and mixed ones at that. Take this gem from the NYT article on how the Fed manages the money supply:

Typically, the Fed raises interest rates to ward off inflation when the economy is growing fast and in danger of overheating, and lowers rates when the economy is slackening.


Apparently, the economy is sometimes an automobile at risk of overheating, and at other times, a sailing vessel stranded as its sails slacken in weak winds. Take two metaphors and call me in the morning. But can macroeconomics go much beyond such metaphors? I'd like to be convinced, but I'm not yet.

248 comments:

1 – 200 of 248   Newer›   Newest»
Eric said...

I'm currently reading "The Origin of Wealth" by Eric D. Beinhocker right now, which is an attack on traditional neoclassical economics with its emphasis on equilibrium systems that can be solved. The book treats the market economy instead as a complex adaptive system, using evolutionary strategies to optimize use of resources. It has a similar approach to The Social Atom, and I think you'd appreciate it.

Len said...

Economics is a science on a par with handicapping horses. A few years back, I had a job in which I wrote about the economy and economic prospects, and I found that my predictions--as a total amateur--were quite often more accurate than those of professional economists who had some interest group or political party to represent.

Mr Bush is not directly responsible for the housing bubble, even though things were done in his behalf that, I believe, encouraged it. It was, to my mind, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Board pushing down the Federal Funds rate to an astonishingly low 1/2% that caused the trouble. And that move was made for, and I believe, for purely partisan political reasons.

After the 9/11 attacks, the economy was headed toward recession. Instead of allowing that to happen, Greenspan and the Fed kept pushing the overnight rate lower and lower--in effect, encouraging borrowing rather than saving--until a mild recovery began. (One of my pet theories is that if you can push the Federal Funds rate down to 1/2% without sparking drastic inflation, then your economy is really in trouble.)

Ahsan said...

well, i would venture to suggest that economics is just another social science in this respect. as someone who's studying political science at grad school, i can tell you accurate, predictive theories are hard to come by. this is because it is obviously more difficult in the social world to isolate causal variables than it is in the natural science world.

the point of social science, for me anyway, is not to predict but to understand. perhaps you're being too hard on economics (and by extension, other social sciences like poli sci, hist, socio)?

Zack B. said...

I studied economics in school and learned that corporations behaved as rational profit maximizing entities. It has been educational to work in a real corporation, observe the decision making process and see how different it is from the academic model. I don't have any comprehensive theory of corporate behavior, but three things come to mind.

1. There is to some degree a sense of what is fair and appropriate behavior between corporations, their customers, their suppliers, their shareholders, and their employees, and shared by these entities. There is also a tendency to reward those who play fair and punish those who don't, even to the extent that doesn't make sense for rational profit maximization. This is part of human nature that is observable anywhere from the kindergarten playground to the upper reaches of corporate and goverment power.

2. There is an acute awareness among corporate executives of a hierarchy of status and where they fit in. This has a strong effect on how decisions are made. Good CEOs understand this and attempt to harness it to the advantage of the corporation. But it's not something that can be ignored in trying to understand corporate behavior.

3. If there is a number that corporations attempt to maximize, it is stock price, not profits. This is not surprising as executives are highly incented to do this. This is an interesting dynamic as the stock market is not perceived by the executives as rational, so a surprising amount of effort goes into understanding the irrationalities of the market, and making some irrational business and financial decisions with the goal of pandering to these perceived irrationalities in the market.

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Simon Fellows said...

Mr Buchanan Hiya..Another amazing book is TSA;thanks for writing.

Can you recommend any provocative books or papers you're read recently please ?

Sinc. and with thanks again,

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alex said...

Your post teeters on the edge of the "either-or" fallacy. Economics may not have the rigor of physics, but this does not mean that that its impossible to "predict and manage an economy on the basis of anything more scientific than the reading of tea leaves."

If you compare, for example

US economic growth in the 18th and 19th centuries

vs

US economic growth since WWII

you'll see that the latter is considerably less volatile. The most likely culprit is the federal reserve which deliberately acts to smooth fluctuations.

Just because we're not doing something as well as it could conceivably be done doesn't mean that we're quite as bad as reading tea leaves.

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Danny said...

I just read your NYT article and am quite happy you put those thoughts out there.

I did find it interesting, this desire on the part of economists to keep their mathematical models. Maybe they can have both, as physicists and engineers often do -- small signal and large signal models.

...Dan

Fidel said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chris said...

I think it's ironic that you note the tendency to assume rationality is an issue of the "sociology of the economics discipline," rather than an issue of ignoring the sociology discipline for the economics discipline.

The very simple truth of our current crisis is the fact that market agents do not trust each other since Lehman Brothers' failure. Trust is not quantifiable, at least not in any fundamentally sound way. It's a very subtle, complicated and often aesthetically determined social mechanism that sociology (and not economics) has studied for over a century.

Now, instead of approaching the situation through the lens of sociology and its long history of using rational choice as ONE approach, people are scrambling to begin again from the very economic assumptions which are being violated in this situation. Everyone agrees that the market is being irrational, but the solution is not to simply begin relaxing economic assumptions.

In reality (see "An Engine, Not a Camera" and various histories of the Great Depression) there are two distinct social entities operating: The elites with control over large (but not majoritarian) sums of capital and who have their own relatively tight social networks, and the non-elites which follow collective action models with little social connectivity besides aggregate attributes (day traders, sovereign funds, individual brokers). In previous crises the elites eventually realize they have to abandon their economic interests in order to salvage them and begin to rely on highly personal bonds - socially constructed trust between one individual and the next. In the Great Depression this happened too late and to too little effect and thus was unable to turn the tide. In 1987, it worked.

The real question is whether or not it's too late for this, and whether or not anyone besides Warren Buffet is actually following this script. I suspect that some or many are, we just aren't going to learn the details until much later.

Algosome said...

"Dr. Black Swan", N.N. Taleb, has a major section titled "we just can't predict" in his bestselling book. He cites work by James Shanteau in 1992 that identified fields with real experts and fields with "experts" (Taleb calls the "empty suits") who do no better than chance. Fields with actual experts include livestock judging, astronomy, aircraft testing, soil judging, physics, math, accounting, grain inspection, and photo interpretation. Empty suits include stockbrokers, clinical psychologists, college admissions officers, economists, financial forecasters, Bank for International Settlements staff, and personal financial advisers.

[In defense of psychologists, they've recently found one therapeutic method, called cognitive-behavioral therapy, that actually appears to be effective in controlled, experiments. All the other therapies are junk, though.]

Taleb then goes into the work of Philip Tetlock (1999, 2005) who first proved that in 27,000 predictions, PhDs were no better than undergraduates or journalists, and "experts" with big reputations were actually worse predictors than those who had none. Tetlock then looked deeper into how they maintained their illusion of expertise and found a whole range of ego-maintenance stories familiar to armchair psychoanalysts: selective memory for successes vs failures, selective memory for facts and for goals, attribution distortions, and the narrative fallacy. He with the best story wins, regardless of whether the story is consistent with the recorded facts.

Taleb also mentions that there have been only a very few studies about the predictive capability of econometric models, a research area poorly funded because of its unsettling exposure of the dismal accuracy of such models, but I can't find the citation right now -- you'll just have to read the book yourself.

Anonymous said...

I have long been persuaded by Harry S Dents aguement that demographics is a good predictor ecoonomic performance. Dent has shown that if you take birth rates and adds an ~50year time lag you can get a reasonable match to the Dow Jones industrial average. The idea is that as consumers age they spend more until the reach retirement and then stop spending. Dent has been fairly accurate in predicting the major booms and crashes of the last few decades (including the japanese economic downturn and the current financial crisis). This approach reminds me a little of a statistical mechanics approach to the problem. Unfortunately Dent also "fine tunes" some of his predictions using some questionable ideas such as elliot waves.

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David Morris said...

Hmm... this kind of critique seems to be the exact sort of thing that Paul Krugman calls out in his essay "Ricardo's Difficult Idea" (http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/ricardo.htm. I highly recommend giving it a read.

Moreover, I would just add that red flags ought to be popping up any time you find yourself dismissing entire fields of study because of obvious, glaring logical flaws that--somehow--otherwise intelligent people are somehow missing. What is far more likelier to be going on is that, in fact, you are mistaken in your understanding of the claims that they are making.

But anyway, don't listen to me--read the essay, and let us know if you think that the idea of comparative advantage--a key finding of macroeconomics--is nothing but "mixed metaphors".

(BTW: economists are well aware of the atrocious use of mixed metaphors in newspaper writing about economics. There's even an index: the Muddled Metaphor Index, or MMI, which I think was used by Calculated Risk as a measure of how bad the credit markets were doing.)

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Oh whoops, this blog seems to be dead...

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